Boris faces wait over Tory rebels vote of no confidence: When is the next election?

Boris Johnson ‘personally calling MPs’ reveals expert

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson brought forward the last general election, which took place in December 2019. The snap election resulted in a crushing victory for his Conservative Party, giving him a majority in the House of Commons. But since then, the PM has been bogged down by a series of scandals, including Government parties that took place during lockdown.

Recent developments in the Partygate scandal have ramped up the scrutiny once more on Mr Johnson to step down as PM.

A total of at least 28 Tory MPs have tabled letters of no confidence in Mr Johnson’s leadership – 12 of which have arrived following the publication of Sue Gray’s report into the gatherings.

John Stevenson is the latest politician to withdraw his support for the PM, while ex-cabinet minister Dame Andrea Leadsom has also hit out at Mr Johnson’s “unacceptable failures of leadership”.

The incumbent PM still has about two-and-a-half years left in office. So, if he were to hold onto power, when would the next general election happen?

At present there is no fixed date for the next general election to take place.

However, it can be held no later than January 24, 2025, according to the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

The legislation repealed the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, and delayed the previous election date – May 2024.

Mr Johnson could also opt to call a snap general election, like he previously did three years ago.

During the 2019 election, the Tories won 365 seats, making gains of 48 MPs.

In comparison, Labour, under ex-leader Jeremy Corbyn, surrendered 60 seats, marking its worst performance since 1935.

But if a general election took place today, many pollsters have anticipated entirely different outcomes.

For example, research from The New Statesman predicted a hung Parliament, where Labour would hold the majority of seats.

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But it would not hold enough to form a majority Government – requiring at least 326 seats – and would likely form a minority administration.

If Mr Johnson were to step down as PM, a Tory leadership contest would ensue, where the party and its members would vote in a new leader.

The same exact scenario allowed Mr Johnson to replace Theresa May as PM in 2019.

Jeremy Hunt has emerged as the favourite to replace the incumbent PM should he step down, according to the Betfair Exchange.

The betting agent has awarded the former Health Secretary odds of 5/1, while Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is ranked as the second favourite for the role (13/2).

Other Tory MPs tipped for the position include:

  • Tom Tugendhat: 15/2
  • Penny Mordaunt: 9/1
  • Ben Wallace: 9/1
  • Rishi Sunak: 9/1
  • Nadhim Zahawi: 15/1
  • Michael Gove: 20/1

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